Peter Obi’s 2027 Presidential Ambition: A Dangerous Game of Political Alliances

By Azu Ishiekwene

The Rising Star of Nigerian Opposition Politics

Among Nigeria’s opposition figures, Peter Obi stands out as the most formidable challenger to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in the anticipated 2027 presidential race. While former Vice President Atiku Abubakar’s People’s Democratic Party (PDP) secured slightly more votes (6.9 million or 29.1%) in the 2023 elections, this performance was disappointing for a politician making his sixth presidential bid.

Obi’s achievement was particularly noteworthy given his circumstances. With less than a year to prepare after being sidelined by the PDP and witnessing the bitter power struggle between Atiku and former Rivers State Governor Nyesom Wike that left the party in disarray, Obi managed to secure 6.1 million votes (25.4%). His campaign made history by defeating the All Progressives Congress (APC) in its traditional Lagos stronghold, energizing young voters, and shaking Nigeria’s complacent political establishment.

Maintaining Momentum Amidst Political Turmoil

After his strong third-place finish, the critical question was whether Obi could sustain his political momentum, strengthen the Labour Party (LP), and manage his passionate but sometimes unruly “Obidient” movement until the next election cycle.

So far, Obi has demonstrated remarkable resilience. He has weathered the storm of internal LP conflicts that have produced three rival claimants to the party’s leadership while watching from the sidelines as his former party, the PDP, appears to be conducting what might be its final burial rites.

A Critical Juncture in Obi’s Political Journey

However, as Obi enters what may prove to be the most delicate phase of his political career, two years before the next presidential election, he appears dangerously confused when clarity is most needed. His current flirtation with the African Democratic Congress (ADC) – the party former President Olusegun Obasanjo predicted in 2019 would unseat the APC but failed spectacularly – raises serious questions about his political strategy.

The ADC’s past failures and current internal crises aren’t necessarily deal-breakers (all Nigerian parties face challenges of varying severity). The real problem lies in Obi’s apparent indecision: should he join the ADC, an organization that resembles neither a proper political party nor a credible coalition, or should he focus on repairing the fractured LP?

The Allure and Peril of Political Coalitions

While Obi claims he’s not desperate for power, his actions suggest he believes 2027 might represent his best shot at the presidency – a legitimate ambition for someone with his credentials: eight years as governor, vice presidential candidate in 2019, and presidential candidate in 2023.

In my assessment, Obi’s prospects appear brighter than Atiku’s (exhausted from chasing political prophecies) or Rotimi Amaechi’s (whose candidacy seems more about political theater than serious contention). Yet instead of consolidating his gains, broadening his appeal, and strengthening the LP, Obi has fallen for the seductive but flawed notion that his path to power lies in joining forces with Atiku, Amaechi, and former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai in what looks increasingly like a “coalition to nowhere.”

Misreading the Political Landscape

This strategic miscalculation ignores what brought Obi this far in the first place. His strongest support came from women aged 18-24 (who comprised 82% of his voting bloc), the urban middle class, and tech-savvy Nigerians across regions and age groups – not the political dinosaurs he’s now courting. Rather than expanding his appeal among these critical demographics, he’s become obsessed with winning over the very establishment he initially rejected.

In Nigeria’s political system, where presidential candidates must secure at least 25% of votes in two-thirds of states, Obi’s main challenge is improving his performance in the North, where he remains weak. However, his approach to solving this problem is fundamentally flawed.

The Northern Question and Flawed Alliances

Obi seems to believe he needs the support of prominent Northern politicians like Atiku or El-Rufai – figures consumed by their own political failures who cannot and will not help him. NNPP leader Rabiu Kwankwaso might have been a more valuable ally, but would never accept a subordinate role.

The obsession with Nigeria’s so-called political “tripod” (power rotation among regions) has been repeatedly disproven since 1999, with both Obasanjo and Buhari’s elections demonstrating that regional balancing alone doesn’t determine electoral success. It’s tragic that Obi, in what may be his most serious presidential bid, either doesn’t recognize this or feels compelled to hitch his wagon to spent Northern political forces.

Dangerous Bedfellows

Politics often makes for strange alliances, but Obi’s newfound camaraderie with El-Rufai – who has called him everything from an “ethnic bigot” to a “Nollywood actor” – is particularly puzzling. As for Amaechi, whose extravagant tastes are legendary, Obi should know better than to trust such company.

These political wanderers share little beyond naked ambition. While Obi is entitled to choose his allies, he would do well to watch his back.

Challenges in His Home Base

Even in his Southeast stronghold, Obi faces significant obstacles. Anambra Governor Charles Soludo views “Obidients” as a nuisance, while Imo’s Hope Uzodimma would undoubtedly block any threat to his political interests. The only LP governor, Abia’s Alex Otti, shares no particular affection for Obi either.

As Obi’s running mate Datti Baba-Ahmed correctly observed, any coalition with Atiku, El-Rufai, and Amaechi would amount to a “coalition of the second fiddle.”

A Fork in the Road

Currently, Obi finds himself in political limbo. Having witnessed Atiku’s role in the PDP’s collapse firsthand, it’s baffling that he would consider the ADC or any coalition with Atiku as viable options.

Southeastern politicians face unique challenges: exorbitant campaign costs and deep-seated mistrust among Northern elites stemming from the Civil War era. Despite official rhetoric of reconciliation, old wounds remain fresh, making appeasement strategies unlikely to succeed.

A Warning Against Desperation

Obi is aligning with the wrong crowd and risks losing his party’s support in the process. While he should seek alliances where beneficial, he must not sacrifice what he’s built over the past two years. His current trajectory mirrors that of desperate politicians – unless, of course, his claims of not being power-hungry were disingenuous all along.

N.B: Ishiekwene is Editor-in-Chief of LEADERSHIP and author of “Writing for Media and Monetising It”

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