The Political Odyssey of Peter Obi and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso: Strategy, Desperation, or a Flawed System?
By Azu Ishiekwene (Expertly Edited & Expanded)
Former Labour Party presidential candidate Peter Obi has often described himself as Nigeria’s most misunderstood politician. He argues that his frequent party switching—five defections across three election cycles—is not a sign of desperation but a calculated survival tactic for the greater good. Yet, critics compare him unfavorably to Vice President Atiku Abubakar, a figure synonymous with political vagrancy. Who—or what—is driving Obi and his new ally, former Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso? This analysis explores three competing theories, offering deeper context and practical examples to illuminate Nigeria’s complex political landscape.
The Tinubu Factor: A Master of Political Chess?
The first suspect in this political drama is President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Accused, rightly or wrongly, of orchestrating Obi’s troubles, Tinubu’s alleged hand is visible in three of Obi’s four defections over the past 12 years (the first, from APGA to PDP in 2014, being the exception). When Obi left the PDP for the Labour Party in 2022—just nine months before the general election—he transformed from a conventional contender into a political insurgent. He famously defeated Tinubu in his Lagos stronghold, turning what was expected to be a two-horse race into a three-way contest where Obi secured six million votes and finished third. Since then, Tinubu has reportedly learned a hard lesson: never underestimate Obi.
The Insurgency and Its Aftermath
To neutralize Obi’s insurgency, Tinubu is alleged to have set the Labour Party ablaze through a combination of political proxies and judicial manipulations. This strategy extended to other parties, including the PDP, where Obi or any potential challenger might seek refuge. The result? A weakened opposition landscape where Obi has no choice but to flee. Kwankwaso’s political wanderings have been less fraught nationally; at one point, he seemed poised to join Tinubu’s government—a chance Obi never had. Even Obi’s casual Vatican meeting with Tinubu sparked speculation about a deal involving an embattled bank linked to Obi. Whether or not these claims hold water, those who see Tinubu in every bad dream—egged on by careless comments from his aides—believe he is the architect of Nigeria’s fragmented opposition.
Practical Example: Consider the 2023 Labour Party crisis, where internal factions loyal to Tinubu allegedly disrupted primaries and candidate selection. This forced Obi to seek alternative platforms, illustrating how executive power can destabilize opposition parties.
Obi: The Author of His Own Misery?
A second, more critical view holds that Obi is the primary cause of his own instability. His desperation, they argue, is his greatest enemy. This argument gained traction after Obi’s recent defection from the African Democratic Congress (ADC) to the newly registered National Democratic Congress (NDC)—a party formed nine years ago but only registered three months prior. Obi’s own comment that he would defect “20 times if necessary” has done little to quell suspicions that he is his own worst enemy.
Inside the ADC: A Tale of Impatience
An ADC source revealed that during six months of working with Obi, they had never seen a more desperate politician. Obi couldn’t wait for the party to decide its flagbearer, barely hiding his impatience. To appease him, the party bypassed former Road Safety Corps Marshal Osita Chidoka for the National Organising Secretary position, handing it to Obi’s chosen candidate, Chinedu Idigo. Yet, the fear of missing the bigger prize continued to haunt him.
Deeper Explanation: Obi’s pattern reveals a fear of competitive primaries. In 2022, he left the PDP just three days before its presidential primaries, joining the Labour Party where he was handed the ticket without contest. Similarly, in the ADC, he faced the prospect of direct primaries—a high-risk scenario for a politician without deep party structures. Rather than negotiate or compete, he bailed out for the NDC, where he is once again the biggest fish in a small pond. Kwankwaso, who once boasted he would not play second fiddle, now appears content to be Obi’s prop.
Kwankwaso and the Snake Charmer: A Faustian Bargain?
What changed since Kwankwaso declared at Chatham House that he could not step down for Obi, calling him an inferior candidate unlikely to win Northern votes? The answer lies in political pragmatism. Just as Kwankwaso used the NNPP in 2023 to mobilize Kano votes for his surrogate governor, his current gambit is to use Obi to mobilize Igbo votes in Kano, securing his base. As the saying goes, better a king in Kano than a spare tire in Abuja.
However, this alliance is not without its bizarre twists. A video of the Kano NDC chairman, Usaini Mai Riga, with a live snake wrapped around his neck, invoking curses on anyone challenging his leadership, underscores the chaotic nature of this partnership. The question, therefore, is not who is chasing Obi and Kwankwaso, but what they are chasing—power, relevance, or survival?
Practical Example: In Kano State, ethnic voting patterns are critical. Kwankwaso’s base relies on Hausa-Fulani support, while Obi’s strength lies with Igbo residents. By merging forces, they aim to create a formidable bloc, but internal tensions—like the snake charmer incident—threaten to unravel the alliance.
Blame the System: A Third Perspective
A third, more systemic view argues that holding party-flipping against Obi or Kwankwaso is misguided. Unlike in countries with ideologically distinct parties, Nigeria’s political parties are mere special-purpose vehicles for grabbing power. Even critics of Atiku’s scandalous defection record are willing to give Obi and Kwankwaso a pass, arguing that they are not in the race for themselves but to find a platform to change the country.
This perspective insists that no recent politician has been as vilely haunted by authorities as Obi, yet nothing has been found against him. His pursuers see him as the relatively clean politician they could never be. In a conversation with a close Obi associate, this view was strongly expressed. My response: politics is messy, hardly a contest among saints. Others—Atiku, Saraki, Akpoti, Wike, Jonathan, and even Tinubu—have faced similar hauntings and stood their ground. There comes a point when you must stand and fight. Obi has chosen the politics of convenience. Or perhaps, like former President Muhammadu Buhari, we are expecting a quality he simply doesn’t possess. In that case, the fault is ours, not his.
Deeper Explanation: Nigeria’s electoral system, with its weak party structures and lack of ideological differentiation, incentivizes defection. Politicians like Obi and Kwankwaso are products of this environment, not anomalies. Until the system is reformed—perhaps through campaign finance laws or internal party democracy—such behavior will persist.
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