Nigeria’s Gas Sector Shows Resilience with November Supply Surge, Yet Structural Hurdles Loom

An analysis of the latest operational data reveals a complex picture of recovery and enduring constraints in Africa’s largest gas economy.

LAGOS – Nigeria’s gas supply landscape displayed signs of operational resilience in November 2025, with average daily deliveries climbing to 4.68 billion standard cubic feet (scf), according to the latest fact sheet from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA). This represents a significant month-on-month increase from October’s 3.94 billion scf per day. However, a deeper analysis of the figures, obtained from the primary source report, reveals a sector grappling with the dichotomy of improved output and stubborn systemic challenges.

Plant Performance: A Tale of Two Metrics

The November surge was primarily engineered by improved utilization rates at key processing facilities. The standout performer was the Soku Gas Plant, which leapt to a 96.84% utilization rate following brief maintenance in October. The flagship Nigeria LNG Trains 1–6 in Bonny also saw a slight uptick in utilization to 73.7%, processing a steady 3.5 billion scf per day.

Yet, the data tells a nuanced story. The Escravos Gas Plant, for instance, processed the same volume (0.68 billion scf) in November as it did in October, but its utilization rate fell from 75.57% to 62%. This suggests the plant was operating on a wider capacity base but could not sustain a higher throughput, hinting at possible feedstock variability or technical limitations.

Domestic Gains: Incremental Progress Amidst Grid Constraints

On the domestic front, the November data shows marginal but consistent gains across strategic sectors, reinforcing gas as the backbone of Nigeria’s industrial and power ambitions:

• Power Sector: Received 0.645 billion scf/day, a slight increase, solidifying its position as the largest domestic off-taker.
• Commercial Segment: Saw a stronger uptick to 0.581 billion scf/day, indicating revitalized activity among bulk users.
• Gas-Based Industries: Consumption rose to 0.420 billion scf/day, signaling a tentative recovery in manufacturing and industrial utilization.

Experts note, however, that increased gas supply to the power sector has not translated into proportional gains in electricity generation. This underscores a critical bottleneck: Nigeria’s beleaguered transmission grid and the financial insolvency of its electricity market continue to sever the link between feedstock availability and reliable power supply.

The Export-Import Paradox: Strong Shipments vs. Local Price Pressures

Nigeria’s export engines continued to hum, providing vital foreign exchange earnings. Nigeria LNG Limited maintained robust exports averaging 101,555 cubic meters per day, while the West African Gas Pipeline supplied a steady 121 million scf daily to regional neighbors.

This export strength exists in parallel with a curious domestic market phenomenon for Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG). Despite a supply surplus—with production exceeding consumption by nearly 1,000 metric tons daily—retail prices remained stubbornly high between ₦950 and ₦1,500 per kilogram. Analysts point to high logistics costs, foreign exchange volatility affecting imports, and value-chain inefficiencies as culprits, demonstrating that physical availability alone cannot dictate market prices in a complex economy.

The “So What”: Growth Amidst a Thicket of Challenges

The November 2025 data, while positive, is a snapshot in a longer narrative of fits and starts. The month’s performance is attributed to stabilized upstream supply and restored capacity at power plants. Yet, the sector’s fundamental constraints remain largely unaddressed:

Persistent structural issues—including recurrent pipeline vandalism, chronic underinvestment in processing and transmission infrastructure, and the slow implementation of the midstream provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA)—threaten to cap future growth. The LPG price disconnect further highlights deep-seated macroeconomic and logistical hurdles.

In conclusion, Nigeria’s gas sector has demonstrated its capacity for monthly recovery, driven by operational improvements. However, transforming these intermittent supply increases into sustained economic development—marked by stable power, competitive industrial input costs, and affordable domestic energy—requires moving beyond plant-level utilization to tackle the entrenched infrastructural and policy barriers that have long defined the nation’s energy paradox.

Source: This analysis is based on operational data and reporting from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) as published by Punch Nigeria.