Nigeria’s Economy Hits Five-Year High: CBN PMI Data Signals Broad-Based Recovery
Analysis of the latest Purchasing Managers’ Index reveals a significant economic acceleration, driven by agriculture and industry, as stabilization reforms appear to gain traction.
ABUJA – Nigeria’s private sector activity expanded at its fastest pace in approximately five years in December 2025, according to official data released by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). The Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), a key leading indicator of economic health, surged to 57.6 points, signaling the strongest monthly economic surge since 2020.
The data, announced by CBN Acting Director of Corporate Communications Mrs. Hakama Sidi Ali, points to a recovery that is both robust and widely distributed across the economy. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion, and the latest figure significantly surpasses that threshold.
Sectoral Breakdown: Agriculture Leads a Tripartite Surge
The expansion was notably broad-based. The agricultural sector, a critical employer and pillar of food security, led the charge with a PMI of 58.5 points. The industrial sector followed closely at 57.0 points, while services recorded a solid expansion at 51.9 points. This tripartite growth suggests the recovery is moving beyond isolated sectors to encompass the core, employment-generating segments of the Nigerian economy.
“The rise was driven by increases in production levels, new orders, and employment,” the CBN statement noted. Of the 36 subsectors monitored, 32 reported growth in these key indicators, highlighting a rebound in domestic demand and non-oil economic activities.
Contextualizing the Surge: From Stabilization to Expansion
Analysts interpreting this data point to a potential inflection point. The CBN directly credited its recent “macroeconomic stabilization reforms” for boosting business confidence, job creation, and operational efficiency in the fourth quarter of 2025. This suggests that policy measures aimed at curbing inflation, stabilizing the exchange rate, and improving liquidity are beginning to translate into tangible business activity.
“This isn’t just a statistical blip,” said a Lagos-based economic analyst who reviewed the data. “A PMI at this level, sustained across so many subsectors, reflects a genuine strengthening of productive capacity and a restoration of business optimism. It indicates that companies are not just receiving more orders; they are confident enough in the economic environment to increase hiring and production to meet that demand.”
The “So What” for Nigeria’s Economic Future
The implications of this strong PMI reading are multifaceted:
1. Job Creation Momentum: The explicit link to hiring across sectors is perhaps the most socially significant outcome. Sustained PMI expansion above 50 is a reliable precursor to net job creation, offering a potential respite to Nigeria’s high unemployment rate.
2. Non-Oil Sector Resilience: The broad-based growth underscores the increasing resilience and importance of Nigeria’s non-oil economy. As global oil prices remain volatile, diversification into agriculture, manufacturing, and services becomes crucial for sustainable growth.
3. Policy Validation: The data provides a measurable, early validation for the CBN’s recent policy trajectory. It will likely bolster the bank’s resolve to continue its stabilization agenda while also shifting focus toward fostering sustainable growth.
4. Cautious Optimism for 2026: While the CBN anticipates “stable growth into 2026,” economists caution that maintaining this momentum requires consistent policy, continued improvements in security for agricultural and industrial hubs, and infrastructure support. A single month’s data, while highly positive, must be followed by sustained performance.
The December 2025 PMI offers a compelling snapshot of an economy gathering speed. It moves the narrative from one of stabilization and challenge to one of tangible, measurable expansion. The critical task for policymakers now will be to ensure this surge is the beginning of a durable trend, not a peak.
This report is based on information from the Central Bank of Nigeria as published by The Independent Nigeria.