Gombe 2027: Direct Primaries, Consensus, and the Myth of Political Exclusion – A Deeper Analysis
The recent BBC Hausa interview featuring Professor Isa Ali Pantami has injected a significant layer of debate into the political atmosphere of Gombe State. In the discourse, claims of prevention and political obstacles were brought to the forefront, painting a picture of an aspirant being systematically sidelined by the state machinery. However, a dispassionate analysis of the current political architecture suggests that the narrative of exclusion may be more of a strategic posture than a procedural reality.
In public affairs, it is essential to distinguish between political friction and institutional blockage. While Professor Pantami’s interview signals an attempt to rally grassroots sympathy and draw the attention of the national APC leadership, the mechanics of a direct primary actually serve to protect the rights of all qualified aspirants. This distinction is critical: friction is the natural heat of competition, while blockage is the deliberate denial of opportunity. In Gombe, the rules of the game—if followed—ensure the latter is minimized.
The Institutional Shield of Direct Primaries
The transition to a direct primary model fundamentally alters the power dynamics within a state chapter. Unlike the delegate system, which can be susceptible to the concentrated influence of a few officials, a direct primary places the decision-making power in the hands of every registered party member across the wards of Gombe. This is not merely a procedural shift; it is a philosophical one. It democratizes access, ensuring that no single individual—governor, godfather, or party chieftain—can unilaterally determine the outcome.
From a procedural standpoint, the APC guidelines for direct primaries are designed to bypass local gatekeeping. The procurement of Expression of Interest and Nomination Forms is handled at the National Headquarters in Abuja. Furthermore, the screening process is conducted by a committee appointed by the National Working Committee, not the state governor. If an aspirant meets the statutory requirements—such as being a registered party member in good standing, meeting educational qualifications, and paying the requisite fees—there is no administrative mechanism at the state level that can legally prevent them from appearing on the ballot. For example, if Professor Pantami has fulfilled these conditions, the state machinery cannot bar him; any attempt to do so would be a violation of party rules and could be challenged at the party’s appeal panel or even in court.
Practical Example: The Power of Direct Primaries in Action
Consider the 2022 APC gubernatorial primaries in Ekiti State, where direct primaries were used. Despite the incumbent governor’s preferred candidate, the process allowed for a competitive field where grassroots support ultimately determined the winner. Similarly, in Gombe, a direct primary would require aspirants to mobilize voters across 11 local government areas, not just lobby a handful of delegates. This levels the playing field for candidates with genuine grassroots networks, like those who have invested in ward-level relationships over years.
Choice Versus Exclusion: Understanding the Difference
Much has been made of Governor Inuwa Yahaya’s preference for a specific candidate, often linked to figures like Jamilu Gwamna. While it is standard practice for an incumbent to endorse a successor to ensure continuity—a strategy seen in many democracies, from the United States to Nigeria—an endorsement is not a disqualification. In a direct primary, an endorsement is merely one signal in a sea of thousands of individual votes. It carries weight only to the extent that voters choose to follow it.
If an aspirant truly possesses the grassroots support they claim, the direct primary is the ultimate level playing field. It moves the contest from the Governor’s office to the streets and the local government areas. In this context, sincerity is not measured by media appearances on international platforms, but by the willingness to organize one’s base and participate in the headcount. For instance, an aspirant who has been actively building ward-level structures, funding local projects, and engaging with party members over the past four years will have a tangible advantage over one who has relied on media visibility alone.
Debunking the Myth of Exclusion
The narrative of exclusion often conflates a lack of endorsement with active suppression. In Gombe, there is no evidence of a systematic blockade against any qualified aspirant. The party’s constitution guarantees every member the right to contest, provided they follow due process. If an aspirant feels aggrieved, the party has established grievance mechanisms—including appeals to the National Working Committee and the party’s electoral panel—that can be invoked. The myth of exclusion, therefore, serves a political purpose: it generates sympathy, pressures the party leadership, and frames the aspirant as a victim rather than a competitor. But in a direct primary, the only true victim is the candidate who fails to organize.
Conclusion: The Ballot as the Ultimate Arbiter
For Gombe State, the integrity of the upcoming electoral cycle depends on the party’s adherence to its own internal laws. The narrative of prevention serves a political purpose, but it does not align with the institutional openness provided by a direct primary system. As we observe these developments, it is clear that the path to the Gombe government house is not a gift to be granted by a state executive; it is a mandate to be won from the people.
Rather than framing the contest as one of exclusion, all aspirants should focus on the democratic opportunity that the direct primary provides. The sincerity of any political ambition will ultimately be validated by the ballot, not by narratives of victimhood. For the people of Gombe, the choice is clear: they will decide who leads them in 2027, and no amount of media interviews or claims of exclusion can override their collective will.
Abubakar M. Kareto is a Public Affairs Analyst specialising in national, sub-national, and continental issues. He can be reached via email at amkareto@gmail.com.
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