El-Rufai: My Support for 2023 Muslim-Muslim Ticket Was Political, Not Religious

In a candid and revealing television appearance, former Kaduna State governor Nasir El-Rufai has reframed the contentious debate surrounding the All Progressives Congress (APC) 2023 presidential ticket, asserting that his vigorous support for the Muslim-Muslim pairing of Bola Tinubu and Kashim Shettima was driven solely by political calculation, not religious ideology.

The former governor, known for his direct and often polarizing rhetoric, appeared on Channels Television’s Sunday Politics programme to address one of the most defining and controversial strategies of the last election cycle. His comments provide a rare, behind-the-scenes glimpse into the strategic thinking that shaped a decision which critics lambasted as a threat to Nigeria’s fragile religious harmony.

A Calculated Strategy for Electoral Victory

El-Rufai confirmed his role in championing the ticket but was unequivocal in dismissing any religious motivation behind it. He presented it as a cold, hard analysis of electoral variables designed to secure a win.

“It was a political strategy; it was a strategy to win the election; it was not a religious strategy,” El-Rufai stated emphatically. “When you are contesting an election, you look at every variable, every index, every criterion that will help you win. It has nothing to do with religion.”

This framing attempts to shift the narrative from a heated cultural and religious debate to a dispassionate discussion of political realpolitik. The APC’s decision to field a presidential and vice-presidential candidate who are both Muslim was unprecedented in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic and sparked intense national discourse.

Dismissing Fears of Religious Exclusion

A significant portion of the criticism, led by groups like the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) and the Pentecostal Fellowship of Nigeria (PFN), centered on the fear that such a ticket would inevitably lead to the exclusion of Christians from governance and perpetuate a sense of marginalization.

El-Rufai argued that these fears have proven to be unfounded. To bolster his point, he pointed to his own tenure in Kaduna State, where he also ran and won on a Muslim-Muslim gubernatorial ticket with Dr. Hadiza Balarabe as his deputy.

“So long as we continue to speculate on these issues, we will not solve them. We have done a Muslim-Muslim ticket now. Tell me in what way Christians are now short-changed; nothing,” he challenged. “No leader that wants to succeed will limit his choice of appointees to a particular religion or ethnicity. If you want to succeed, you have to diversify.”

He concluded this line of reasoning with a definitive statement: “Now we have cured the fear and the love for the Muslim-Muslim ticket. It has been done, buried, and gone. I did a Muslim-Muslim ticket in Kaduna; I want to know which Christian in Kaduna was short-changed because of it.”

The 2023 Election and Its Aftermath

The build-up to the February 2023 presidential election was dominated by the reaction to the APC’s choice. The party settled on President Bola Tinubu, a Muslim from the South-West, and Kashim Shettima, a Muslim from the North-East. This stood in contrast to the main opposition parties: the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) fielded Atiku Abubakar (Muslim) and Ifeanyi Okowa (Christian), while the Labour Party’s Peter Obi (Christian) ran with Datti Baba-Ahmed (Muslim).

Despite the fierce criticism and legal challenges that followed, the Tinubu-Shettima ticket prevailed. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) declared Tinubu the winner with 8.79 million votes, defeating Atiku Abubakar of the PDP, who polled 6.98 million, and Peter Obi of the Labour Party, who garnered 6.1 million votes.

After the election results were upheld by the courts, Tinubu and Shettima were sworn in on May 29, 2023, as Nigeria’s 16th President and Vice President, respectively.

Analyzing the Political Calculus

El-Rufai’s explanation invites a deeper analysis of the political calculus behind the decision. Political strategists at the time argued that the ticket was designed to consolidate the core Muslim vote in the North, a traditional stronghold for the APC, while relying on Tinubu’s political machine and influence to deliver substantial votes from the multicultural and religiously diverse South-West.

By choosing Shettima, a former governor of Borno State, the APC also aimed to strengthen its credentials on security issues, a paramount concern in the North-East region ravaged by insurgency. The strategy, however, risked alienating a significant portion of the Christian population and more moderate voters across the country.

El-Rufai’s assertion that it was “just politics” reflects a school of thought that prioritizes winning coalitions over symbolic representation. It suggests that in the complex algebra of Nigerian politics, where ethnicity, region, and religion are powerful factors, parties are sometimes forced to make calculated trade-offs to assemble a winning majority.

A Lingering National Conversation

While El-Rufai may declare the issue “buried and gone,” the conversation about religious balance in Nigeria’s highest offices is far from over. The debate touches on the very core of how the nation manages its diversity and ensures inclusivity in its governance structures.

Critics of the strategy may argue that even if the intent was political, the effect was to deepen religious fissures and normalize the exclusion of a major religious group from the top tiers of executive power. They may question whether short-term electoral gains are worth the potential long-term cost to national cohesion.

Supporters, on the other hand, will see El-Rufai’s comments as a validation of a bold strategy that ultimately worked. They might argue that competence and the ability to win elections should be the primary considerations, and that inclusive governance after the election is what truly matters.

As Nigeria continues to navigate its complex social fabric, the insights from a key political player like El-Rufai provide valuable context for understanding the difficult choices and strategic compromises that define the nation’s political landscape. His appearance serves as a reminder that in politics, the publicly stated reasons for a decision often mask a more intricate and calculated game of numbers and demographics.

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