OPEC+ Plans 2.2 Million BPD Oil Output Increase by November

OPEC+ is preparing to accelerate its oil production increases and could return up to 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) to the market by November if non-compliant members fail to adhere to output quotas, according to a Reuters report.

Accelerated Production Strategy

This move marks a significant shift in OPEC+’s output strategy, analysts say. The group had already surprised markets in April by rolling back production cuts faster than expected, despite weak oil prices and subdued global demand.

Industry experts suggest the decision, largely driven by Saudi Arabia, aims to pressure members that have consistently exceeded their production limits. So far, OPEC+ has committed to releasing nearly 1 million bpd into the market for April, May, and June, with another major increase planned for June.

Upcoming Production Hikes

Sources indicate OPEC+ will likely announce an additional 411,000 bpd increase for July during its June meeting. This trend is expected to continue through August, September, and October, targeting countries like Iraq and Kazakhstan that have repeatedly breached output limits.

Market Impact

Oil prices have already shown weakness, with crude falling below $60 per barrel in April – a four-year low. The combination of increased OPEC+ supply and geopolitical uncertainties, including new U.S. tariffs, has raised concerns about global economic growth.

“The market will take this news negatively, as long as crude exports do not suggest an improved compliance within OPEC+,” said UBS oil analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

Growing Tensions Within OPEC+

Internal conflicts are becoming more apparent, with Kazakhstan recently declaring it would prioritize national interests over OPEC+ decisions. Despite a 3% output dip, Kazakhstan still produced above its quota in April, raising questions about the group’s unity.

Why This Matters

OPEC+ currently maintains nearly 5 million bpd in production cuts, many scheduled to last until 2026. The 2.2 million bpd in voluntary cuts, introduced since 2022, were meant to stabilize prices amid weak demand.

While the group initially planned to phase out these cuts by September 2026, the accelerated timeline now pressures non-compliant members. If poor compliance continues, these voluntary cuts could disappear by November, removing a key support for global oil prices.

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