From Ismail Omipidan, Abuja
Democracy, political analysts argue, is a game of numbers. And the North, based on available statistics, have the numerical strength which it has consistently deployed over the years to decide who becomes the country’s president.
But for its deliberate decision to cede the presidency to the South in 1999, it is unlikely for a Southerner to have emerged Nigeria’s president at the commencement of the current democratic dispensation in 1999.
However, despite its numerical strength, Daily Sun recalls that it could not singlehandedly hand the presidency over to the immediate past President, Mohammadu Buhari for three consecutive presidential elections until there was a handshake between it and a major political bloc from the South-West, led by the current President, Bola Ahmed Tinubu in 2015.
For instance, in 2003, which was the first time Buhari was coming into the race, he polled 12, 710, 022 votes against Olusegun Obasanjo of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), who polled 24, 456, 140 votes. Buhari ran on the platform of the defunct All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), which was in firm control of the North at the time.
But in 2007, when he ran against Umaru Yar’Adua, a fellow Muslim and Northerner, also of the PDP, Buhari only managed to poll 6, 605, 299 votes, against Yar’Adua who polled 24, 838, 063 votes. Yar’Adua, who was rounding off his tenure as the Katsina governor at the time, also floored Buhari, a fellow Katsina man in the state.
However, when Buhari again squared up against Jonathan, a Southerner and a Christian in 2011, he recorded 12, 214, 843 votes. But Jonathan carried the day with 22, 495, 187 votes.
But in 2015, when Buhari, again, ran against Jonathan, following the handshake between the North and the South-West, he not only defeated Jonathan in the North, he went ahead to win the contest for the first time, polling 15, 424, 921 votes, against Jonathan’s 12, 853,162 votes.
Daily Sun investigations however revealed that in addition to the handshake, Buhari might have won the contest because of the crisis that hit the PDP ahead of the contest, which saw some of its governors and lawmakers defected to the APC. The outcome of the election, ended the PDP’s 16 years hold on Nigeria.
In 2019, the PDP attempted a come back. It fielded former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, who had just left the APC at the time. At the end of the contest however, Buhari floored Atiku, polling 15, 191, 847 against Atiku’s 11, 262, 978. Atiku won in 17 states, including the FCT, while Buhari won 19 states.
In the past, any party that wins the North-West zone overwhelmingly usually wins the presidency. But that changed in 2023, as the APC which eventually won the presidency, lost four of the seven states in the zone, including Katsina to the PDP, wining only Jigawa and Kano states, while Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso-led New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) won Kano State. Ironically, the APC lost its stronghold of Katsina, Kaduna, Kebbi and Sokoto to the PDP.
This perhaps may explain why recently, a call came from an uncommon quarter to the northern political elites already jostling for the presidency in 2027 to tarry a while and give the current holder of the office another four-year term beginning from 2027.
The call was made by the Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), Senator George Akume. He insisted that Tinubu, a southerner, should be allowed to have a second term, meaning that those eyeing the Presidency from the North in 2027 should look beyond that year by waiting till 2031.
He addressed Atiku directly by saying “If it is the will of God for Alhaji Atiku Abubakar to be President of Nigeria, even at the age of 90 years, he can get it. But he and other northerners eyeing the office now should look beyond 2027.” And because it was Atiku he addressed directly, the former Vice President also fired back immediately by saying that allowing the South to have the presidency in 2027 would amount to short-changing the North.
In a statement by his Media Adviser, Paul Ibe, Atiku noted that by 2027, the South would have had 17 years of leadership, leaving the North with just 11 years since the advent of democracy in 1999.
Atiku further said “Where, then, does true equity and fairness reside? By the year 2027, the South would have enjoyed 17 years of leadership — eight years under Obasanjo, five years under Jonathan, and four years under Tinubu — while the North would have experienced only 11 years, with Yar’Adua serving three and Buhari eight. This resulted in a disparity of six years between the North and South, casting a shadow over the balance of power.
“In any case, the power to elect and vote out their government lies firmly with the Nigerian people, entrusted to them upon the government’s ability to prove itself worthy of the people’s ballot. But has the Tinubu government demonstrated that it deserves to be re-elected? The answer, alas, is as clear as the heavens themselves — God forbid.”
If Atiku runs again in 2027, it would be the fourth time he will be on the ballot for the presidential contest. The first time was in 2007. But he was only cleared to run barely 48 hours to the contest. His performance at the poll was abysmal. He had made three other unsuccessful bids to be on the ballot before he made it in 2019 and 2023. The three bids included the contest for Social Democratic Party’s with Chief MKO Abiola and Ambassador Babagana Kingibe at the Jos Township Stadium in 1993.
Although Atiku has not formally declared his intention to run in 2027, he gave an indication in May this year during an interview with the Hausa Service of Voice of America (VOA) that he might be running after all. He was asked pointedly if he would run again, and he said: “God willing,” adding that “As long as God gives me strength, good health, and long life”.
He was however quick to add that the PDP as an opposition party cannot on its own dislodge the APC.
Hear him: “A former President of America, Abraham Lincoln, didn’t he vie seven times? As the PDP is right now, it is the only one standing up for election. There is no way it will win the election. It requires joining forces with other parties.”
Interestingly, Atiku is not the only northerner eyeing the PDP’s ticket. Bauchi State Governor, Senator Bala Mohammed is also eyeing the ticket. Like Atiku, the Bauchi Governor is also from North-East, a part of the North that is believed to have been marginalised by the core North with regards to power sharing. Therefore, for the North to make a strong bid for the coveted seat, analysts say, it must go in one direction.
Recent events have however shown that the North is not likely to go in one direction. For instance, while the anti-Tax Reform bills sentiment is very strong in the North today, former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Honourable Yakubu Dogara, a Christian, from Bauchi, is a very strong advocate for the bills.
The PDP, which for now remains APC’s major challenger, does not appear to have a strong Christian presidential material that could run on its ticket. And even if it eventually finds one, it is unlikely if the PDP would want to gamble, considering the fate that befell it in most parts of the North, especially the North West in 2015 and 2019.
Where it decides not to look the way of any Christian, whether from the North or South, the party is most probably going to settle for a Muslim, who is likely to come from the North West, provided Atiku drops his ambition. If and when that happens, Daily Sun investigations reveal, the 2027 presidential election could go either way, especially considering the fact that Muslims in the South-West are not comfortable with the Tinubu’s presidency, as they have accused the government openly of favouring Christians from the zone, ahead of them.
Interestingly, any party that wins the majority of the votes in the North in 2027 presidential election may as well win the presidency. But for any party to win the North, that party must be strategic and calculative, including being sensitive to the North’s sentiments.
Apart working round the clock to disabuse the minds of the Northerners that the Federal Government’s Tax Bills are not anti-Islam, government appointees must begin to take deliberate steps to counter the slogan “Akori Yunwa (let’s chase hunger away),” a slogan that is already gaining ground in the North and even in other parts of the country against the Tinubu administration.
All said and done, analysts still believe that the race is still open, considering that 24 months is still a long time in politics. But the APC must watch it, so that what seems like a golden opportunity does elude it. Reward and motivation are essential ingredients to ginger party supporters and loyalists to work more for party success.
