The Hunt for Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso: Ambition, Fear, or Political Survival?
Peter Obi, the former Labour Party presidential flagbearer, often portrays himself as Nigeria’s most misunderstood politician. He argues that his frequent party switching—five times across three election cycles—is not a sign of desperation but a calculated survival tactic for the greater good. Yet, critics compare him to Vice President Atiku Abubakar, a figure synonymous with political vagrancy. The question remains: Who is chasing Obi and his new ally, former Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso? And more importantly, what are they chasing?
This analysis explores three competing theories, each offering a unique lens into the motivations and pressures driving these two political figures. We’ll expand on the original arguments, provide historical context, and examine practical examples to help you understand the deeper dynamics at play.
Tinubu’s Hand
Theory 1: President Bola Ahmed Tinubu as the Puppet Master
The first and most popular theory points to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu as the architect of Obi’s political turmoil. Since Obi’s first defection from the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) to the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in 2014, three of his subsequent four defections have been blamed on Tinubu’s influence. This narrative gained traction after Obi’s 2022 move from PDP to the Labour Party, just nine months before the general elections.
Obi’s defection transformed him from a conventional contender into an insurgent. He famously defeated Tinubu in his Lagos stronghold, turning what was expected to be a two-horse race into a three-way contest. Obi finished third with six million votes, a feat that forced Tinubu to take him seriously. Since then, Tinubu has allegedly employed a dual strategy: setting the Labour Party ablaze through political proxies and judicial manipulations, while also targeting other parties like the PDP where Obi might seek refuge.
Practical Example: Consider the internal crises within the Labour Party post-2023 elections. Multiple factions emerged, with some leaders publicly accusing Tinubu’s allies of orchestrating defections and legal challenges. This mirrors tactics used in previous Nigerian elections, where incumbents destabilize opposition parties to weaken challengers.
Rabiu Kwankwaso’s political journey has been less fraught nationally. At one point, he seemed poised to join Tinubu’s government—a chance Obi never had. Even Obi’s casual meeting with Tinubu at the Vatican sparked speculation about a deal to save an embattled bank linked to him. For those who see Tinubu in every bad dream, fueled by careless comments from his aides, the weakened state of Nigeria’s opposition parties is a direct result of his machinations.
Obi Insurgency
Theory 2: Obi as the Author of His Own Misery
A second, more critical view insists that Obi is the primary cause of his own struggles. His desperation, they argue, is his greatest enemy. This argument gained momentum after Obi’s recent defection from the African Democratic Congress (ADC) to the National Democratic Congress (NDC)—a party formed nine years ago but registered only three months ago. Obi’s comment that he would defect 20 times if necessary has only reinforced suspicions of his instability.
Deeper Explanation: An ADC source revealed that in the six months Obi worked with the party, he displayed unprecedented impatience. He couldn’t wait for the party to decide its flagbearer, and despite being given the position of National Organising Secretary for his chosen candidate, Chinedu Idigo, he remained restless. The source noted that Obi saw nothing in the ADC during those six months that he couldn’t have observed from outside a year earlier. This suggests a pattern of impulsive decision-making driven by fear of competition.
What truly chases Obi, beyond Tinubu and desperation, is the fear of a contest. He wants the presidential ticket on a platter—no primaries, no opposition. Evidence supports this: in 2022, he defected from PDP to Labour just three days before PDP’s presidential primaries, securing the Labour flag without a contest. In the NDC, he is again the biggest act, while Kwankwaso, who once boasted he would not play second fiddle, now accepts a supporting role.
Author of His Misery
The Kwankwaso Factor: A Strategic Pivot
Kwankwaso’s shift is equally telling. In 2023, he used the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) to mobilize Kano votes for his surrogate governor. Now, his gambit is to use Obi to mobilize Igbo votes in Kano to secure his base. As the saying goes, “Better a king in Kano than a spare tyre in Abuja.” However, this alliance faces challenges. A video of the Kano NDC chairman, Usaini Mai Riga, with a live snake wrapped around his neck, invoking a curse on anyone contesting his leadership, underscores the internal chaos.
Practical Example: This mirrors the 2019 alliance between Atiku and Peter Obi, where regional voting blocs were leveraged for mutual benefit. However, such alliances often fracture under pressure, as seen when Obi’s supporters clashed with PDP loyalists after the 2023 elections.
ADC: What Changed?
Theory 3: The Ideological Vacuum in Nigerian Politics
A third, more nuanced view argues that party-hopping in Nigeria is a misnomer because political parties lack ideological differentiation. Unlike in countries like the United States or the United Kingdom, where parties are defined by clear platforms (e.g., conservative vs. liberal), Nigerian parties are mere special-purpose vehicles for grabbing power. This argument gives Obi and Kwankwaso a pass, even as critics condemn Atiku’s record of defections.
Deeper Explanation: Supporters of this view claim that Obi and Kwankwaso are not in the race for personal gain but to find a platform to change the country. They argue that no politician in recent times has been as vilified by authorities as Obi, yet nothing has been found against him. His persecutors, they say, see him as the relatively clean politician they could never be.
However, this perspective has its limits. Politics is messy and rarely a contest among saints. As vile as the hauntings against Obi may be, other politicians—like Atiku, former Senate President Bukola Saraki, Natasha Akpoti, Nyesom Wike, President Goodluck Jonathan, or even Tinubu—have faced similar tests and stood their ground. There comes a point when you must stand and fight. Obi has chosen the politics of convenience.
Kwankwaso and the Snake Charmer
Conclusion: What Are They Chasing?
The question, therefore, is not who is chasing Obi and Kwankwaso, but what they are chasing. For Obi, it appears to be a path of least resistance—a ticket without contest, a platform without opposition. For Kwankwaso, it’s about securing his Kano base while leveraging Obi’s Igbo appeal. Both are driven by a mix of ambition, fear, and survival instincts.
Perhaps, like former President Muhammadu Buhari, we are expecting of Obi a quality he doesn’t have. In that case, the fault is ours, not his. As Nigerian politics evolves, the real test will be whether these two can transcend their tactical maneuvers to offer a genuine alternative to the status quo.
Blame the System
Ishiekwene is the Editor-In-Chief of LEADERSHIP and author of the book, Writing for Media and Monetising It.
This analysis was expanded to provide deeper context, historical parallels, and practical examples to help readers understand the complex dynamics behind Nigeria’s political defections.