By Sunday Ani
Barely two years to the Osun State 2026 off-cycle governorship election, preparations to get a candidate by the All Progressives Congress (APC), have subtly started. Feelers have shown that some caucuses and individuals within the party have started positioning themselves to emerge the party’s candidate while the leadership at different stages has started unofficial consultations.
Many power brokers in the APC and other critical stakeholders in the state seem to be in agreement that the current Peoples Democratic Party-led government in the state is performing below the people’s expectations. In many quarters in the state, there is a strong feeling that Governor Ademola Adeleke is not a serious leader and that he is not positioning the state to a pride of place in the comity of states in Nigeria.
One will recollect that Adeleke came to power in 2022 for numerous reasons, some of which are the sentiment attached to the death of his brother – Isiaka Adetunji Adeleke; also is the sympathy that he allegedly won the 2018 governorship poll before the supplementary election was pronounced by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in seven polling units and Oyetola subsequently won the governorship election. Added to the foregoing reasons, there is also the clamour for governorship by the Osun West zone of the state. Also, the ability of Ede, the town of Adeleke to produce bulk votes was unarguably a factor. For many critical observers, the calculation is that barring any unforeseen circumstances, the governor will enjoy the right of first refusal, hence it is most likely that the PDP will re-present the governor for re-election in the forthcoming 2026 election and activate all the above sentiments and opportunities once again.
Oyetola’s APC government between 2018 and 2022 ultimately laid a foundation for Adeleke’s victory by suffering from self-inflicted injuries.
Political watchers in the state feel that the feud with his predecessor, to whom he was Chief of Staff, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola was borne out of inexperience for a governor that won a state-wide election with less than 500 votes when there was no bickering within the party. He was not seen in the state as a politician because of his reserved and withdrawn nature. He was not known to have any cordial relationship with stakeholders within the state like traditional rulers, civil servants, elites and religious leaders among others. He was said to have either dabbled unnecessarily into controversial issues or did not allow due process in the contest that took place in almost all the kingship stools that were vacant during his tenure.
Political observers noted that he might have deprived himself of political advice since he did not involve seasoned political gladiators within his party in his cabinet, at least among his principal cabinet members – the Deputy Governor, the Secretary to the State Government, the Chief of Staff, and the Deputy Chief of Staff, among others, were not notable politicians.
There were complaints that members of his kitchen cabinet, who took most decisions under his watch, were also not known as politicians. A wider dragnet of experienced party leaders was not involved in his re-election planning and execution.
On the other hand, there was over-reliance on the capacity of the former governor’s caucus, Ileri Oluwa, to deliver.
A resurgence of activities within the party APC in Osun State, the utterances of some key party men, and the body-language of Alhaji Isiaka Oyetola has revealed that he is not interested in running in 2026. The reasons are not far-fetched. Age is a factor as he will be 72 by the next election. He is also presently a Minister; a position perceived as less rigorous and which he would resign if he is running for elective position. He would rather hold on to it other than face the hard political work of campaigning for votes around the state. In any event, he has been elected the “leader” of the party, APC, in Osun State.
While about seven names of potential contestants are in the public space, interaction with party members and words on the street reveal that the top governorship contestants for APC at the moment in Osun can easily be forecasted.
One name that readily comes to the minds of many stakeholders, is Alhaji Munirudeen Bola Oyebamiji, a banker turned politician. He is presently the Managing Director of National Inland Waterways Authority (NIWA) and he was Osun State Commissioner for Finance for eight years. The Balogun Adin Musulumi of Ikire-land and Asiwaju of Ikire hail from Ikire in Osun West zone of the state where Gov Ademola Adeleke comes from.
Senator Surajudeen Ajibola Bashiru, who hails from Osogbo in the Osun Central zone is also a likely aspirant. He is currently the National Secretary of APC. A student activist and legal practitioner, he served as Commissioner for Regional and Intergovernmental Affairs, and as Attorney-General and Commissioner for Justice. He was elected Senator in 2019.
Senator Babajide Omoworare, a prince of Ile-Ife from Osun East zone of the state is another likely aspirant. He is a legal practitioner and governance consultant. He was elected twice into the Senate to represent the Ife-Ijesa Senatorial District in 2011 and 2015. He had been the Majority Leader of the Lagos State House of Assembly before he was elected to represent Ifako-Ijaiye Constituency 1 in 1999 and 2003. He was also an Adviser to the President on National Assembly (Senate) Matters from 2019 to 2023.
Although the APC is said to have done an autopsy in 2023 on why it lost the last governorship election in Osun State, it appears to be all motion and no progress. Neither the Prof Isaac Adewole-led Repositioning Committee, nor the Report Implementation Committee led by Rt. Hon Timothy Owoeye, and the Reconciliation, Disciplinary and the Appeal Standing Committees it birthed has executed apparent development outcomes that could be seen to reunite and restructure the party. The wide gulf between Ogbeni Aregbesola and Alhaji Oyetola that led to infractions before the 2022 election is getting wider. Likewise, the influence exerted over the party machinery by the leadership of the Oyetola’s Ileri Oluwa group is also seen as getting stronger.
However, a positive development is the impactful introductory and familiarisation tour embarked upon by the new state party chairman, Tajudeen Lawal and the members of the State Executive Committee to the local government chapters of the party at the end of 2023 and early 2024.
The party is yet to issue any clear directive on the conduct of its affairs as regards the 2026 governorship elections and it has not at any formal meeting signalled that the contest has begun.
But, it’s becoming obvious that the gladiators and their followers are ready to start the race. A former Political Adviser to Oyetola, Sunday Akere, in a statement published by various online media in November 2023 said the Osun APC had zoned the governorship ticket of the party to the Osun West but the assertion was quickly rebuffed by the APC Osun Director of Media and Information, Chief Kola Olabisi, as Akere’s personal opinion, desire and a figment of his imagination.
The concerted opinion within the party is that APC must show tact in the selection of a candidate in the 2026 gubernatorial contest beyond speechmaking and armchair media criticisms of the PDP government. Three aggregated factors derived from a wide parley with party members are summed up as follows:
Firstly, APC requires a person of integrity, capacity, competence and clout that can overshadow Governor Adeleke in comparison during the general election.
Secondly, APC leadership should be truthful to itself in the consideration of the party and the ardent followers above selves, caucuses or sectional interests by re-evaluating the loss of Oyetola in 2022. APC being more politically insightful should make reasonable and informed political decisions in ensuring that the flag-bearer emanates from an area that can deliver quantum votes that can negate the massive votes cast in the two local governments of Ede for Governor Adeleke against APC.
Lastly, the projected APC candidate must be non-controversial and be acceptable to the generality of party members, who would be proud to work for him. He must be a warm, welcoming and unifying candidate that can build a consensus for the party going forward. He must also display a calm temperament, be politically experienced and battle ready for the PDP antics.
The 2026 Osun governorship is in APC’s court. The 2026 election is for the APC to lose. The thinking in some quarters is that Adeleke’s PDP government in Osun State did not show that it was prepared for governance as it did not hit the ground running. They believe that the governor has not displayed the capacity to rule. Instead, it has been criticising the projects embarked upon by his predecessor and commencing bogus projects. The internet is frequently awash with how much the governor is spending on his Office and Ministry of Works where he supervises as Commissioner. Paltry amounts have always been allocated and expended on other key sectors like education, health, agriculture and others. All these notwithstanding, if APC fails to be strategic in its calculations in picking an acceptable, competitive and electable candidate, Governor Adeleke may be lucky again in 2026.
