•Why Northern leaders are angry, adamant
•Aggrieved APC members, opposition realign
•CPC elements, others to dump APC for SDP
From Ismail Omipidan, Abuja
Ahead of the 2027 presidential election in Nigeria, forces appear to have risen up to stop the re-election bid of President Bola Tinubu, thus, confirming Saturday Sun’s exclusive report, published in its December 14th edition, 2024.
Leading the pack of the opposition against Tinubu, for now, is former Governor of Kaduna State, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai. With his defection from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) to the Social Democratic Party (SDP), it seems the opposition against President Tinubu and the APC is taking shape gradually with aggrieved elements in the ruling party at the forefront.
Like Saturday Sun had predicted, El-Rufai has since reached out to the former Governor of Osun State, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, former APC National Chairmen, Senator Abdullahi Adamu and Chief John Odigie-Oyegun. Although, Oyegun and Adamu were never in the defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), Saturday Sun’s investigations revealed that an understanding has been reached among the leadership of the CPC for all of them remaining in the APC, to move en masse to the SDP. It is not clear as at press time if the decision enjoys the endorsement of former President Muhammadu Buhari, who led the then CPC into a merger that formed the APC, ahead of the 2015 presidential election.
A reliable source, who is a member of the opposition, however believed that Buhari is involved in the entire plan, saying that the plan is to reduce the voting strength of the APC in the North. And from all indications, the plot to unseat Tinubu, which is being spearheaded by Northerners, bore similar characteristics with that against former President Goodluck Jonathan, in the build up to the 2015 contest.
Saturday Sun recalls that the plot to dislodge Jonathan in 2015 was first hatched in January 2012, three clear years before the contest.
The North connection
Most of the highly placed Northerners who spoke with Saturday Sun believed that they do not see El-Rufai being the rallying point in the North for Tinubu’s ouster. But one of them was quick to add: “You know, as Nigerians, we are gullible and we forget too easily. We enjoy seeing people abuse government, especially people who are able to play victim the way El-Rufai is doing. To that extent, anything can happen. But if the Tinubu’s handlers are serious, El-Rufai can be checkmated and tamed even in the North by Northerners.”
But another source confirmed to Saturday Sun that the North, as a body, is behind the “grand design” to dislodge President Tinubu. He noted that the League of Northern Democrats, the Arewa Consultative Forum, the Northern Elders Forum, and the traditional rulers in the region, among others, are all part of the plot to unseat the incumbent President.
Why the North is angry
Many leaders in the North as well as their followers, investigations reveal, believe that President Tinubu does not like the region and its people. Asked why the North believes so, the source said “based on appointments and projects spread, we believe that Mr. President does not have our interest at heart. Whenever Mr. President is making normal appointments, say 10, he will give eight to his Lagos boys, not even the South-West, one to North-Central and the remaining one to other parts of the North.
“Mr. President is trying to use the North-Central against us. We are also trying to see if we can re-enact our political partnership with the South-South. The South-South is angry because they believe that the Senate President is serving a personal interest with the position and not that of the region.
“Since our traditional rulers are involved, I believe it will work out. Our traditional rulers became angry following President Tinubu’s stance on his tax reform, where he appears unwilling to listen. The politics is like that of Sardauna/Awolowo, where the Awoists term anyone who supports or vote for a Northerner, a bastard. That is the same thing going on in the North. They are already sounding it in Islamic schools that Mr. President is not a good Muslim,” the source added. It was further learnt that other Muslim sects in the North are equally bitter with President Tinubu for what they termed his “use and dump,” strategy. In the build up to the 2023 presidential election, they argued, he used different sources to reach out and he reached out to everyone without exception. But today, they claim, President Tinubu only hobnobs with the Izallah group.
“Izallah group is not the largest in the North. Yes, we imbibe their principles, we are not necessarily Izallah. The Derika/Tijjaniyyah sect has the largest followership in Nigeria. He is also not utilising his Vice President well. If he (President) is not careful, he would lose Borno. He lost Yobe the last time and you know, Borno/Yobe go in the same direction most of the time. He won Zamfara the last time.
With a PDP governor in place now, he may lose Zamfara. You know, Bafarawa (former Sokoto Governor) initially said he was stepping aside from active politics. But as I speak to you, he is planning to join the SDP. Have you heard the Speaker (of the House of Representatives) say anything? He doesn’t want to go against the North. All these are part of the grand design to dislodge him (Tinubu). We are preparing to match him resources for resources, security for security,” the politician said.
Plot to re-enact AD/APP-kind of alliance
Findings around leading opposition leaders in the North indicate that there might not be a merger, like it happened shortly before the 2015 presidential election. But there is a possibility of an alliance. If they stick to their plans, former Vice President Atiku is expected to pick the PDP’s ticket, Peter Obi, that of LP, Kwankwaso, NNPP and El-Rufai, SDP. In the end, like it happened in 1999 where Chief Olu Falae ran under the AD/APP alliance, Saturday Sun gathered that, that is what the opposition for now, is working towards, with the two most formidable candidates running as presidential candidate and running mate respectively.
What the opposition must do to unseat President Tinubu
For now, some political watchers opine that there appears to be no real opposition strong enough to unseat President Tinubu. But a former governor from the North, who was one of those who first hinted Saturday Sun about the plot to unseat President Tinubu last year, said: “Two years is long enough to plan President Tinubu’s ouster. But whoever must lead the battle must be someone who is standing on a higher moral ground.”
Owing largely to the literacy level of the electorate, the kind of alliance being proposed by the opposition may not likely work in a country like Nigeria. What has worked consistently is a coalition of opposition parties into one big platform, in form of a merger, like it happened in the build up to the 2015 election.
APC not losing sleep over El-Rufai, opposition
The APC and the presidency appear not to be losing any sleep over El-Rufai’s defection to the SDP, predicting that the former Kaduna State Governor would fail in his decision to join forces with those bent on defeating President Tinubu in 2027.
Presidential spokesman, Mr. Bayo Onanuga, said: “It is natural for him to feel bad that he has been excluded. I think the president has acknowledged in a recent tribute to him that Nasir did a lot in installing President Tinubu, and if he is not there it doesn’t mean he will bring down the roof.”
On his part, another Presidential spokesman, Daniel Bwala, noted that the defection is “simply an inordinate ambition that is destined to fail.”
Secretary of the Kaduna APC, Yahaya Baba-Pate said: “We are unperturbed by former governor Nasir El-Rufai’s defection to another party. Our main focus in Kaduna is on how to deliver the state to both President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Governor Uba Sani in 2027.
“The APC in Kaduna State is growing day by day, judging from the calibre of politicians streaming into the party, daily. So, we are not disturbed by anybody defecting to another party. We are not disturbed and we are not going to lose our sleep over El-Rufai’s moves. The party in the state is growing more than before,” he added.
Coalitions against Southern Presidents since 1999
In the build up to the 1999 election, the then leaders of Nigeria decided that the presidency would be rotating between the North and the South. They went ahead to insist that it must also be General Olusegun Obasanjo that would kick-start the arrangement.
In that election, only two candidates contested and the two were Southerners from the South-West. They are Chief Olu Falae and Obasanjo. However, before the end of former President Obasanjo’s first tenure, he fell out with the major stakeholders that brought him to power, including General Theophilus Danjuma (rtd). They mobilised against him, and urged Buhari to run against him in 2003. Buhari did, but Obasanjo triumphed with the support of Northern governors, who though belonged to the opposition, worked against Buhari in support of Obasanjo.
After the death of former President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua in 2010, majority of the stakeholders in the North believed that former President Goodluck Jonathan should just complete the term and give way for another Northerner in 2011. But Obasanjo and many others within the PDP objected to the proposal. The North came up with a consensus candidate, in person of Atiku to compete against Jonathan for the PDP ticket. Obasanjo enlisted the support of the then Jigawa State Governor, Sule Lamido and that of Adamawa, Murtala Nyako, to defeat Atiku at the PDP’s primary.
However, by 2015, Obasanjo joined forces with the North to stop Jonathan’s re-election bid. Can they repeat the same feat in 2027? It seems only time will tell.
For now, Buhari appears to be maintaining a dignified silence. But his recent relocation to Kaduna, from Daura, is being interpreted in some quarters to mean his readiness for party politics. If he decides to support President Tinubu publicly, it would weaken the base of the opposition in the North. Should he, however decide to speak against the Tinubu’s administration, it will be worse for President Tinubu. For now, therefore, Buhari remains President Tinubu’s buffer in the North.
Regardless, some Northerners, including Atiku, are already arguing that allowing the South to have the presidency in 2027 would amount to short-changing the North.
In a statement late last year by his media aide, Paul Ibe, Atiku noted that by 2027, the South would have had 17 years of leadership, leaving the North with just 11 years since the advent of democracy in 1999.
“Where, then, does true equity and fairness reside? By the year 2027, the South would have enjoyed 17 years of leadership — eight years under Obasanjo, five years under Jonathan, and four years under Tinubu — while the North would have experienced only 11 years, with Yar’Adua serving three and Buhari eight. This resulted in a disparity of six years between the North and South, casting a shadow over the balance of power.
“In any case, the power to elect and vote out their government lies firmly with the Nigerian people, entrusted to them upon the government’s ability to prove itself worthy of the people’s ballot. But has the Tinubu government demonstrated that it deserves to be re-elected? The answer, alas, is as clear as the heavens themselves — God forbid.” Also speaking in the same vein recently, Alhaji Umar Sani, a chieftain of the PDP, who worked as a presidential campaign spokesperson in 2019, said: “We are in a multi-party democracy; nobody can come and tell you that the North should wait or the South should wait. It is competitive.
“If we look at it, we will discover that the PDP ruled Nigeria for 16 years, and out of that, only two and a half years were done by the late Umar Yar’Adua, and the rest were done by Olusegun Obasanjo and Goodluck Jonathan. So, if you look at that, you will see that the South has done almost 14 years within the PDP. In the APC, Muhammad Buhari did eight years, and Tinubu is in his first tenure of four years, making it 12 years. So, the issue is not about the North and South any longer; it is about the political party and their aspirations.”
